Need help with understanding how to prospect profitably

[RustyGreerFan]

About a year back to the hobby and I'm interested in prospecting on post-hype players. But I possibly noticed some weird things...

1. Once a player hits it big, is it like Christmas morning after the presents are opened? The anticipation was actually the peak time and not the breakout itself? Like is right now as high as Mike Trout will ever be, even if he ends up having a HOF career?

2. I noticed with a couple players coming off BIG seasons, Carlos Gonzalez and King Felix, that their stuff doesn't APPEAR to be inflated, with the exception of very short issued rc refractors or low #'d autos.

3. Do you make money by getting base RC for cheap and tough refractors and autos, but nothing in between? What is a good price on base Bowman Chrome RCs for the sake of prospecting - 50 cents or less?

4. At what point do you sell? In the midst of their breakout, after awards have been handed out (see Felix), or once they have established themselves as stars? Or maybe it's different depending on the player?!

5. Are there other rules of thumb like, I dunno, "hitters are more profitable than pitchers," or, "some teams are more profitable than others?"

6. Does the caliber of player matter? Like if Brandon Morrow breaks out he could win Cy Young. But if Marc Rzepczynski breaks out he could make an All-Star team. Is the point in time that you sell different depending on this? Or are they both irrelevant because they're in Toronto?

I think that's enough questions for now

 

[mrmopar]

I'm sure you'll find plenty of "prospectors" that can answer your questions, but I am guessing most of us are doing this for the fun of it and collect players or teams because we like to do it.

Prospecting is playing a guessing game and with the volume of untested players, players who appear to have a future but don't pan out and those sleepers who surprise even the smartest of experts, you just have to be lucky I think. If you buy in too early, you stand to lose on those guys who flop. If you come in too late, you pay too much or miss the guys who skyrocket.

Consider a prospect filled set that might have 50 or more potentials. How much of this stuff can you buy up in hopes of the player making it big? I guess if you are rich, as much as you want. Most of us are not rich! A long list of lessons learned for every Pujols reminds us of how risky it can be. Brien Taylor ringing any bells?

 

[RustyGreerFan]

I'm sure you'll find plenty of "prospectors" that can answer your questions, but I am guessing most of us are doing this for the fun of it and collect players or teams because we like to do it.

Prospecting is playing a guessing game and with the volume of untested players, players who appear to have a future but don't pan out and those sleepers who surprise even the smartest of experts, you just have to be lucky I think. If you buy in too early, you stand to lose on those guys who flop. If you come in too late, you pay too much or miss the guys who skyrocket.

Okay, then what part of it is the fun for you? Is it the hunt for finding as many cards of a guy for a great price (even if they don't pan out)? Is it when the player has a breakout season? Is it the feeling that you were "smart" enough to guess right on a player, and subsequently isn't the greatest "proof" that you guessed right when you sell the cards for X profit? Or is seeing a high bv enough for you? What if a player has a great season/career, but never gets a high bv or big return - is there still the satisfaction that you have 50 of his Bowman Chrome RC's in a box somewhere?

Like everything else with this hobby, maybe it's different for everyone. But for me the proof would be me buying up Player X for 50 cents a card then selling them for $5 a card, then coming on The Bench and boasting about my total profit Kinda reminds me of fantasy baseball in that we strive to be the "smartest" GMs, but luck has a lot to do with it. And the ultimate prize is either money or bragging rights or both!

In fact, that's how I distinguish prospecting from player collecting. The fact that I paid $30 for a rare Rusty Greer in 1998, but now wouldn't sell for $10, doesn't bother me in the least! But to have a giant stack of Marc Newfield RCs is irritating and feels like a "defeat."

 

[mrmopar]

Yes, we all collect for our own reasons and that is perfectly acceptable. I tend to be someone who accumulates. I don't want to get rid of anything and collect a wide variety of items and themes. Right now my biggest passion would be signed cards and my player collection, although vintage and oddball are always right up there. I've never officially done it, but I wouldn't mind recognizing a "type card" collection across the sports and non-sports, finding as many different cards as I could for the fun of having that massive amount of variety. I was just looking at some vintage soccer cards on ebay the other night, wishing I had a few of them, but not wanting to pay $2-3 each, plus shipping from the UK, for cards of guys who are most certainly commons I wouldn't collect if they were US Baseball cards.

The fun for me is the discovery of new things I didn't know existed, the thrill of landing a card I have always wanted or just accumulating great items that I can look back on with satisfaction. I don't sell or trade much of anything. I buy what I really want these days, having kicked myself of the pack buying addiction. I don't buy sets anymore, mainly because they have become more expensive.

I like having many different items. It's fun for me to look through a binder of Dodger postcards to see how many different I have obtained or finding oddball sets I forgot I had.

I won't say value doesn't come into play, at least in the back of my mind, such as finding a great vintage card at a fraction of the BV (but also knowing I won't profit from a sale, because I won't sell it).

The only flops I have now are those that sit in complete sets or came in boxes of cards I busted, which if I could take that back, I would. I really loved opening boxes, but that cost me more for for what I got than any other endeavor in collecting I have had.

 

[brewerfan34]

As a card trader in his mid 30's prospecting does not make much sense to me. All the time that is spent on research and money "investing" in cards could be better spent in other more tradional investments such as stocks, bonds, market futures etc...

At least in those investments you have laws that protect both the buyer and seller, plus there are tax advantages if a stock you invested in goes belly up. If you bought $500 worth of autos of a ball player who will be playing golf with his buddies on weekends instead of pro baseball in a couple of years you have nothing.

Let cards be a hobby and have fun with it.

 

[David K.]

Use to be a prospector....but I was not good at it so...I became a set collector...Was late selling my investment cards.....still have Felix Hernandez auto x-refactor card.....sold my other one and nice refractor auto for $$$! Best regards, David

 

[jaderock]

Prospecting leads to more collectors taking hiatus/leaving the hobby for good, etc. Once they get burned, they feel it's no longer fun and walk away blaming the hobby. Seen it hundreds of time...stick with Rusty Greer! JMO

 

[bblair_2002]

The idea of prospecting takes the fun out of what's supposed to be a fun hobby. A card collection is something you can pass down through generations and the feeling of completing a set or getting to a certain milestone in a player or team collection gives you a real sense of accomplishment.

Yes we buy/sell cards all the time but the selling part is only to get rid of cards we don't want in order to buy cards we do for our own collection,not strictly as a means of profit like prospectors like to do.

 

[valediction]

The idea of prospecting takes the fun out of what's supposed to be a fun hobby. A card collection is something you can pass down through generations and the feeling of completing a set or getting to a certain milestone in a player or team collection gives you a real sense of accomplishment.

Yes we buy/sell cards all the time but the selling part is only to get rid of cards we don't want in order to buy cards we do for our own collection,not strictly as a means of profit like prospectors like to do.

Unless they enjoy that aspect of it. I know several people who enjoy that feeling of trying to pick the next big thing. They take a shot, if it works, great, if it doesn't they chalk it up as a loss and move on to the next guy

 

[mindbinge]

players are hyped and hot before the product comes out anyway..so you know what you are looking for when busting....but, if you are just buying and waiting to flip, and you don't bust...you will likely over pay and get burned more times than not.

I made my money on Strasburg by busting and getting hits...if i had tried to buy and flip I would be burned....prime example.

 

[bblair_2002]

Unless they enjoy that aspect of it. I know several people who enjoy that feeling of trying to pick the next big thing. They take a shot, if it works, great, if it doesn't they chalk it up as a loss and move on to the next guy

I can understand that but it would seem to be more costly than just traditionally collecting what you like since the only prospect cards that seem to earn big rewards are autographed rookie cards which most of the time come out pricey right out of the gate.

 

[valediction]

I can understand that but it would seem to be more costly than just traditionally collecting what you like since the only prospect cards that seem to earn big rewards are autographed rookie cards which most of the time come out pricey right out of the gate.

Depends what you like. if you like High grade vintage, limited run HOF autos, etc Those can be spendy as well. Timing is everything with prospecting. If you get a $40 auto that spikes to $100-150 and you sell, it's a nice profit. If you gamble on a prospect that's not a list and he breaks out, it's not that expensive. I pulled a Greinke prospect premieres auto from a pack the year after it came out, picked up another for $10 a few years later. When he had his breakout season, I unloaded them, one for $70 on ebay, one I traded for a Paul Molitor auto from Topps All Time Fan Favorites. I picked up 2 Chase Utley autos for $5 each and unloaded one for a nice profit when he got hot. I traded some Neil Walker autos to Pirates fans last year for a good amount more in trade than I paid for them. I'm not going to retire on those deals, but an extra $50-100, or a HOF auto for a card I'm into for $5-10 is a nice upgrade. Look at a guy like Alex Gordon, he was spendy when the Bowman Chrome auto came out, but he hasn't looked like the can't miss prospect he was priced at. Pick up a few autos if you can get them on the cheap, if he doesn't pan out, no big deal, if he gets hot in the next year or two, you're money up if you sell.

 

[bblair_2002]

Depends what you like. if you like High grade vintage, limited run HOF autos, etc Those can be spendy as well. Timing is everything with prospecting. If you get a $40 auto that spikes to $100-150 and you sell, it's a nice profit. If you gamble on a prospect that's not a list and he breaks out, it's not that expensive. I pulled a Greinke prospect premieres auto from a pack the year after it came out, picked up another for $10 a few years later. When he had his breakout season, I unloaded them, one for $70 on ebay, one I traded for a Paul Molitor auto from Topps All Time Fan Favorites. I picked up 2 Chase Utley autos for $5 each and unloaded one for a nice profit when he got hot. I traded some Neil Walker autos to Pirates fans last year for a good amount more in trade than I paid for them. I'm not going to retire on those deals, but an extra $50-100, or a HOF auto for a card I'm into for $5-10 is a nice upgrade. Look at a guy like Alex Gordon, he was spendy when the Bowman Chrome auto came out, but he hasn't looked like the can't miss prospect he was priced at. Pick up a few autos if you can get them on the cheap, if he doesn't pan out, no big deal, if he gets hot in the next year or two, you're money up if you sell.

I do have similar stories to share such as finding a 2003 Bowman's Best Ryan Howard auto RC in a $5 box at a show in 2004 and soon after selling it for around $70 (yeah I should've waited longer) or hogging up Pujols RCs when they only booked around $20-30. The difference between guys like you and I and the typical prospector is that they don't really collect anything and all they do is buy and sell. It seems like a headache more than anything to keep doing that over and over again. Like I stated before,I will buy stuff to flip on occasion but it's only to fund my own collection.

 

[valediction]

I do have similar stories to share such as finding a 2003 Bowman's Best Ryan Howard auto RC in a $5 box at a show in 2004 and soon after selling it for around $70 (yeah I should've waited longer) or hogging up Pujols RCs when they only booked around $20-30. The difference between guys like you and I and the typical prospector is that they don't really collect anything and all they do is buy and sell. It seems like a headache more than anything to keep doing that over and over again. Like I stated before,I will buy stuff to flip on occasion but it's only to fund my own collection.

Just different sides of the same coin. There are a ton of people out there thinking it's a headache to hunt down a 17 year old piece of shiny cardboard and brag about paying $15 for something that has no real value. Or spend months trading for a set you could pick up for $5. Or spend $130 for 2 hobby boxes of Topps when you can buy the base series one set for $25. One mans headache is another's rush. Some people show muscle cars off, others race them, others build them and sell them to move on to the next project car. It doesn't matter WHAT you enjoy about sports cards, just that you enjoy them

 

[bblair_2002]

Just different sides of the same coin. There are a ton of people out there thinking it's a headache to hunt down a 17 year old piece of shiny cardboard and brag about paying $15 for something that has no real value. Or spend months trading for a set you could pick up for $5. Or spend $130 for 2 hobby boxes of Topps when you can buy the base series one set for $25. One mans headache is another's rush. Some people show muscle cars off, others race them, others build them and sell them to move on to the next project car. It doesn't matter WHAT you enjoy about sports cards, just that you enjoy them

OK you win lol. Seriously,I guess it just depends on the person and we all can agree to disagree on certain things and it does indeed boil down to what makes you happy in the end and that's all that matters . I'll still never understand the concept of prospecting though so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[cpr1981]

I've never been one to "prospect" but I have always been one who looked at the upcoming season and tried to figure out who was going to have the MONSTER season.

For example...I started collection Matt Kemp after his '06 season and was able to pick up a lot of his stuff at a decent price and then "flip" some of them once he took off in '08 and '09. Same with Josh Hamilton (post hype), I was able to get A LOT of his stuff when he signed back in the majors with the cubs/reds in '07 and look at him now.

With prospcting you will have more players like Brandon Wood and Alex Gordon than Evan Longoria and David Price.

Whichever way you decide to go remember the real reason most of us do this...for the love of the game!

Good Luck!

Colvin

 

[bear0555]

I've learned that the best way to answer your questions is to either try it out yourself or watch what happens. I started out slow a little over a year ago and bought autos of moustakas and heyward. I doubled my money on them but also left a lot of money on the table on heyward. Still, I became hooked and started buying more as the season started. I ended up losing money on some of those but I do enjoy some of my cards I'll be reselling more than some of the hof gu I buy.

I'd recommend you define what you are purchasing for collecting and what you are looking to resell. I have a ton of gerrit cole and trevor bauer cards in my pc with my dodgers and angels autos, all of which I want to keep for as long as I can. The extras are all in a different section with the rest of my prospect cards that I expect to be sold according to plan. The bottom line is to love what you do. I certainly enjoy buying cards of top high school players more than watching my head spin when looking at the stocks section in the newspaper.

 

[RustyGreerFan]

@jaderock - I think I'm just getting bored in between finding cards of Rusty Greer and Jake Reed. Collecting two guys that mostly played in the 90's takes patience. Not to mention the fact that I know I'll get killed if a good Rusty card gets on ebay unless it's a BIN and I happen to find it first.

@cpr - that's what I'm doing too - looking at who might have an impact this season. In fact with prospecting in this way I can tie it in to my enjoyment of fantasy baseball. Some of these post-hype guys had their rookie cards way back in 2003-2005.